OJ+287 now is the time.
OJ+287 is reaching quite a crucial time against its outburst prediction models. There have been many attempts to predict its behaviour but none have really got close. Now as we come up to the summer months Dr Mark Kidger has posted the following comments on the BAAVSS alert page.
BAA-VSS members will know that observing OJ287 over the next few monthspresents a unique opportunity to check different professional modelsthat have attempted to explain the long-term light curve. Monitoring todate by the BAA-VSS has tied down the models tightly to the point wherethe predictions are now just about definitive and more data will give adefinite yes/no. Already BAA-VSS data can rule out completely one ofthe alternative binary black hole models that has been proposed. Themodel from Mauri Valtonen, using BAA data from 2005/06 now makes aquite definitive prediction that there should be a new outburst thatpeaks on September 16th, with an uncertainty of no more than a coupleof days in the date of maximum.At the moment the quasar is very active and the base level seems to berising in the expected way for an imminent outburst. However, if we areto nail the model and either confirm it or reject it beyond allpossible doubt, it is essential to make the greatest effort to coverthe light curve over the next few months. This means following OJ287down into twilight in June as late as possible and ensuring that it isrecovered in twilight as early as possible in September because, if themodel is correct, by the end of the first week of September, whenobservations should be just possible at dawn, OJ287 should already bealmost at maximum.It is absolutely critical to close the gap at conjunction as much aspossible to avoid the light curve being clouded by the same "what didwe miss" doubts as in 1995 where it is suspected that the outburst fellexactly at conjunction and only the earliest stages of the rise werepicked up. This time the theoreticians will have no escape if theobservations do not agree with the models!
..............................................................................................
From my own thoughts:
Now I had OJ+287 down as a blazar where as Mark relates to it as a quasar, but it seems they have ruled out the binary black hole (blazar) due to results and predictions not being met.
I will post more on this early next week when I discover more.
Regards
BAA-VSS members will know that observing OJ287 over the next few monthspresents a unique opportunity to check different professional modelsthat have attempted to explain the long-term light curve. Monitoring todate by the BAA-VSS has tied down the models tightly to the point wherethe predictions are now just about definitive and more data will give adefinite yes/no. Already BAA-VSS data can rule out completely one ofthe alternative binary black hole models that has been proposed. Themodel from Mauri Valtonen, using BAA data from 2005/06 now makes aquite definitive prediction that there should be a new outburst thatpeaks on September 16th, with an uncertainty of no more than a coupleof days in the date of maximum.At the moment the quasar is very active and the base level seems to berising in the expected way for an imminent outburst. However, if we areto nail the model and either confirm it or reject it beyond allpossible doubt, it is essential to make the greatest effort to coverthe light curve over the next few months. This means following OJ287down into twilight in June as late as possible and ensuring that it isrecovered in twilight as early as possible in September because, if themodel is correct, by the end of the first week of September, whenobservations should be just possible at dawn, OJ287 should already bealmost at maximum.It is absolutely critical to close the gap at conjunction as much aspossible to avoid the light curve being clouded by the same "what didwe miss" doubts as in 1995 where it is suspected that the outburst fellexactly at conjunction and only the earliest stages of the rise werepicked up. This time the theoreticians will have no escape if theobservations do not agree with the models!
..............................................................................................
From my own thoughts:
Now I had OJ+287 down as a blazar where as Mark relates to it as a quasar, but it seems they have ruled out the binary black hole (blazar) due to results and predictions not being met.
I will post more on this early next week when I discover more.
Regards
posted by Peter Little at
14:25
1 Comments:
Quasar/Blazar, both are correct. A Blazar is a very active Quasar sometimes called an OVV - optically violent variable). OJ certainly falls into this classification. Incidentally, 3C279 is the most active of all OVV's!
We are a long way from ruling out the Binary Black hole model for OJ287 - yet!!! Our project to monitor the forthcoming outburst (solar conjunction, 2007) will either prove the Binary Black Hole theory to be correct, or leave us with a lot to think about. Either way, our data will be invaluable
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